Susquehanna Valley Weather Blog

For the complete discussion on my first call, read the earliest post from today.  I just wanted to get my map posted before I review everything tomorrow morning.

Some new data that seems to be of consensus is the idea of a slight shift in the time table for this system.

Tuesday Evening (6pm-9pm) – Snow will begin to fall from West to East.  Low ratios with this initial batch of snow will make for a wet and sloppy night-time commute.  I think a few inches could accumulate by midnight.

Wednesday Morning (12am – 6am) – Snow continues to fall as temperatures slip into the mid to upper 20s.  This will create more of a fluffy snow which will accumulate quickly.  Winds will begin to increase as this new accumulation begins to blow and drift.

Wednesday Midday (12pm – 4pm) – Coastal banding leads to heavy snowfall during this period.  Winds in excess of 30 mph could lead to near-blizzard or even straight up blizzard conditions.  I expect most schools and places of business to be closed as travel will be tricky and even dangerous.

Things look to wrap up by evening on Wednesday although the winds look to hang around through Thursday.  This will lead to more blowing and drifting of snows which could make uncovered areas covered again by Thursday morning.

Make sure to check back tomorrow for a final call on this storm!

Note:  No map yet as I haven’t been near my computer to draw one up.  I will, however, touch on totals in this discussion.

A clipper system will swing towards the Mid-Atlantic before transferring energy to a coastal low on Wednesday.  The two punches of this sytem will come from both the clipper and then the coastal system.  And with us being in between the two puts us in a prime zone for significant snows.

As the clipper crosses the state, snow will be rather wet and light to moderate.  Most places will only see a few inches out of this punch before the coastal develops and banding wraps around.  It’s with this banding that we will see another thunp of snow.  Remember, that as a low intensifies, it draws in much cooler air on it’s Western side.  So while temperatures might flirt with freezing as the clipper comes through, temperatures will quickly fall into the mid 20s by Wednesday morning.  Winds will also increase as the storm strengthens, possibly reaching 30-40 miles per hour in our area.  This is why you may have heard the phrase “blizzard” thrown around lately referring to this storm.  Blizzard conditions are possible with this storm during the second half (say Wednesday into Thursday morning).  And given the light/fluffy nature of the snow, blowing and drifting will be a huge concern.

An early timetable would look something like this:

Tuesday evening (4-8pm) – A wet snow begins to fall as the clipper passes over the region.  Energy from the clipper will already be shifting to a primary low off the coast of Delaware.

Overnight into Wednesday morning – Snow begins to strengthen and colder air begins to work into the region.  Winds will start to crank up leading to possible near-blizzard conditions.  Our highest accumulations will occur in this time frame.

Thursday morning (~12am) – Snow begins to taper as the low begins to pull away from the coast.  Winds remain strong which will allow for further blowing and drifting to occur.

Right now, I think that areas South and East of I-81 could see a foot or more of snow out of this system.  Those to the North and West are look at more of a moderate event with around six inches.

I’ll have more tonight, including my first call map.

Until then, keep having a great week!